I have a brief and imperfect understanding of the debate around immigration. I welcome feedback and any good-faith discussion on the following.

Limiting myself to one point per point:

• They cost us: ironically, it’s the opposite–the country would financially collapse without this workforce
• They should follow the law: I wouldn’t–there is no way in hell I would care about the law if my family was in danger
• They should assimilate: they do, at rates equal to or faster than our ancestors, but it’s honestly none of my business
• They’re dangerous: common message that overrides the obviousness of the real answer–immigrants are more law abiding

What I am left with:

• Fighting immigration doesn’t reduce immigration, it gives people a way to pay hard working people less (the immigrants)
  • If we really wanted to stop undocumented immigration, we would jail companies that hire undocumented immigrants
• Hard working people who are not safe where they happen to be born deserve options
  • Anyone willing to uproot their family to build a better life for them is brave and hardworking
  • I would love to have more hardworking, brave people as fellow Americans

• Law is not morality–it can be aligned toward common moral reasoning but often isn’t

That’s it. A ton of reading over years and it comes down to a few bullet points.

Details

They cost us

It’s complex, and they do contribute less in taxes based on my understanding. To me, that’s an argument to provide more paths to legal immigration.

• Undocumented immigrants contribute significantly to the economy through labor, consumption, and taxes
• Undocumented immigrants are ineligible for most federal benefits like Social Security, Medicare, and food stamps
• This results in them paying more into systems than they receive

Specifically:

• Economic value estimate: Undocumented immigrants contribute an estimated $500 billion annually to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A 2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine estimated that immigration overall (both documented and undocumented) contributes approximately 2% to the U.S. GDP annually.
• Tax contributions compared to citizens: On average, undocumented immigrants pay less in taxes than U.S. citizens of similar income levels, primarily because income tax compliance is lower without formal documentation. However, they still contribute significantly through sales taxes, property taxes (directly or through rent), and payroll taxes. The $11.7 billion figure represents about 8% of what would be expected from a comparable citizen population, though this varies widely by state and community.
• Benefits eligibility example: An undocumented immigrant working with a false Social Security number might pay into Social Security and Medicare through automatic payroll deductions but cannot claim retirement benefits or Medicare coverage. They are eligible for:
  • Emergency medical care (under EMTALA law)
  • K-12 public education for their children (Supreme Court decision Plyler v. Doe)
  • WIC nutrition assistance (in some states)
  • Limited emergency services
• They are ineligible for:
  • SNAP/food stamps
  • Regular Medicaid
  • Social Security benefits
  • Medicare
  • Unemployment benefits
  • Housing assistance

They should follow the law

Repeat after me: the law is not a substitute for right and wrong (morality).

Secondly, the laws are so (intentionally) complex that they can’t be followed. I, by design, creates lots of “criminals” that allows for selective reinforcement of the law. That’s immoral by my measure of right and wrong.

Specifically, I looked at:

• Specific structural barriers: For example, the current system provides approximately 5,000 permanent visas annually for “unskilled workers” despite economic demand for hundreds of thousands of such workers. For skilled workers, H-1B visas are capped at 85,000 annually, despite much higher demand. Farm work visas (H-2A) are temporary and tied to specific employers, creating vulnerability.
• Wait times for Latin American immigrants: Current backlogs for family-sponsored visas from Mexico can exceed 20 years. For example, siblings of U.S. citizens from Mexico applying today face a wait of approximately 22 years. For Central American countries like El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, the wait times for family preference categories range from 2-15 years depending on relationship category.
• Historical double standard: When many European immigrants arrived (1880s-1920s), the U.S. had open borders with few restrictions beyond basic health screening at entry points like Ellis Island. For example, between 1845-1855, approximately 1.5 million Irish immigrants entered with essentially no visa requirements or quotas. The first significant immigration restrictions came with the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 (targeting Asians specifically) and later with quota systems in the 1920s after many European immigrants had already arrived.
• Visa overstays vs. border crossings: According to the Center for Migration Studies, since 2010, visa overstays have consistently accounted for a majority of new undocumented immigrants - approximately 62% in recent years versus 38% who crossed a border without authorization. This data comes from analyzing Department of Homeland Security statistics on visa issuance and departures.

And I thought about the two most memorable migrations to me: the Irish potato famine and Jewish immigration during WWII:

• Irish immigration during the potato famine (1845-1852) was legal as there were virtually no restrictions on European immigration at that time
• For Jewish refugees pre-Holocaust, it was significantly restricted
  • The Immigration Act of 1924 established strict quotas that severely limited immigration from Eastern Europe where many Jews lived
  • During the 1930s, these quotas prevented many Jewish refugees from legally entering the U.S., with visa requirements deliberately made difficult to obtain

They should assimilate

Research indicates:

• Most immigrants, including undocumented ones, actively work to learn English. 91% of second-generation Hispanic Americans are proficient in English
• English acquisition typically follows a three-generation pattern similar to previous immigrant waves (everyone US immigrant’s lineage didn’t speak it well)
• Learning a new language as an adult is challenging, especially while working long hours in physically demanding jobs

Specifically:

• Regarding assimilation, research consistently shows that immigrants today are assimilating at rates comparable to or faster than historical immigrant waves:
  • Economic indicators show second-generation immigrants typically exceed their parents’ economic status and approach or exceed national averages
  • Intermarriage rates increase substantially by the second and third generations
  • Civic participation (including military service, voting among eligible immigrants, and community involvement) shows strong integration patterns
  • Cultural assimilation (food preferences, media consumption, social networks) typically shows a blended pattern that maintains some heritage while adopting American customs
• English is not the official language of the United States at the federal level. The U.S. has no legally designated national language, though English is the de facto language of government and business, and many states have declared English their official state language
• Worth noting is that technology makes this more complex – many are “assimilated” culturally long before they come here. Others focus on staying connected to home countries.

They’re dangerous

We are overwhelmed with horror stories. People hurting others in horrific ways. I don’t discount that. What’s absolutely cruel about it is that the specificity of scary examples doesn’t align with the clear amounts of data.

How is that possible? It’s like every white man being judged off of Charles Manson or Jack the Ripper.

Think about it

• Specific border example: El Paso, Texas, which has one of the highest proportions of immigrants (both documented and undocumented) in the country, consistently ranks among the safest U.S. cities with populations over 500,000.
• In 2019, El Paso had a violent crime rate of 350 per 100,000 residents, compared to the national average of 366.7, despite being directly across from Ciudad Juárez, which has experienced high crime rates.
• A comprehensive study by the Cato Institute found that incarceration rates for undocumented immigrants in Texas were 56% lower than those of native-born Americans (755 per 100,000 vs. 1,749 per 100,000). Legal immigrants had even lower rates at 368 per 100,000.
• Media coverage often emphasizes individual crimes committed by undocumented immigrants while giving less attention to the statistical reality, creating cognitive biases through availability heuristics.

Bonus: Cognitive biases that overwhelm our system

1. Confirmation bias - People tend to notice or emphasize law-breaking by groups they already view negatively, while overlooking similar behaviors by groups they favor.
2. In-group favoritism - People tend to judge members of their own group more leniently when they break rules, while being harsher toward out-group members who commit the same infractions.
3. Fundamental attribution error - When out-group members break laws, people tend to attribute it to character flaws or moral failings, but when in-group members do the same, they attribute it to circumstances or necessity.
4. Availability heuristic - Dramatic examples of law-breaking (especially those highlighted in media) become more cognitively “available,” leading to overestimation of their frequency.

#politics #cognitivebias